Work package 4: Socio-ecological vulnerability and tipping point analysis
In charge: Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven
Work package 4 combines the results of work packages 1 to 3 in order to achieve a comprehensive assessment of vulnerabilities in the socio-ecological system of the North Sea. On that basis, it will establish effective marine ecosystem-based management strategies and develop operational tools to reduce vulnerabilities and to counteract unwanted ecosystem changes.
It aims at:
- consolidating the socio-ecological system components, their relationships and cause-effect pathways
- developing and operationalising a framework to assess the integrated vulnerability of the SES to the ecological tipping point
- determining realistic spatial management scenarios and assess their effects on the SES considering external factors and environmental change
- providing recommendations on integrated management strategies which could contribute to SES stability in the face of ecological tipping points
Milestones
| M4.1 | Consolidated model of the SES and its functionality |
| M4.2 | Framework for the integrated assessment of SES vulnerability to ecological tipping points |
| M4.3 | Realistic management scenarios are developed |
| M4.4 | Bayesian network (BN) draft model is established |
| M4.5 | BN scenario analysis conducted |
| M4.6 | Coupling of BN and bio-economic model fully operational |
Deliverables
| D4.1 | Scientific paper on the SES structure and functionality |
| D4.2 | Scientific paper on the effects of current and future management scenarios on the SES structure and functionality |
| D4.3 | Report on integrated management strategies to enhance SES stability |
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