Work package 4: Socio-ecological vulnerability and tipping point analysis

In charge: Thünen Institute of Sea Fisheries, Bremerhaven

Work package 4 combines the results of work packages 1 to 3 in order to achieve a comprehensive assessment of vulnerabilities in the socio-ecological system of the North Sea. On that basis, it will establish effective marine ecosystem-based management strategies and develop operational tools to reduce vulnerabilities and to counteract unwanted ecosystem changes.

It aims at:

  1. consolidating the socio-ecological system components, their relationships and cause-effect pathways
  2. developing and operationalising a framework to assess the integrated vulnerability of the SES to the ecological tipping point
  3. determining realistic spatial management scenarios and assess their effects on the SES considering external factors and environmental change
  4. providing recommendations on integrated management strategies which could contribute to SES stability in the face of ecological tipping points


M4.1Consolidated model of the SES and its functionality
M4.2Framework for the integrated assessment of SES vulnerability to ecological tipping points
M4.3 Realistic management scenarios are developed
M4.4Bayesian network (BN) draft model is established
M4.5 BN scenario analysis conducted
M4.6 Coupling of BN and bio-economic model fully operational


D4.1Scientific paper on the SES structure and functionality
D4.2Scientific paper on the effects of current and future management scenarios on the SES structure and functionality
D4.3Report on integrated management strategies to enhance SES stability