Work package 2: Economic vulnerability

In charge: Hamburg University- Research Unit Sustainability and Global Change (FNU)

Work package 2 investigates the consequences of ecological tipping for the economic sub-system, focusing on the fisheries market equilibria.

To successively account for subtle feedback-effects between the ecological and the economic system, it uses a fully integrated bio-economic model, allowing for further, subsequent tipping. Spatial resolution will be added by coupling with spatially explicit Bayesian Network-models.

The main objectives are:

  1. To derive the exposition and sensitivity of the economic system to the ecological tipping, with no functioning feedback of economic actors in action
  2. To analyse the topology of bio-economic system steady states, in response to various external economic and ecological drivers, hereby allowing for more realistic feedbacks of economic actors
  3. To analyse the effects of specific conscious societal management scenarios, as well as the adaptive capacity and vulnerability, including the still remaining risk of leaving the desired steady state

Hereby, it is checked whether operational inclusion of early-warning methodologies can significantly improve the cost-risk-trade off.

Milestones

M2.1State space characterised for project scenarios
M2.2Model validation with stakeholders performed
M2.3Tipping points with regards to selected parameters identified and quantified
M2.4Early warning based responsive management modelled
M2.5Tolerable ranges defined and vulnerability given management scenarios determined

Deliverables

D2.1Scientific paper on the responses of the economic sub-system to tipping points in fish species composition
D2.2Scientific paper demonstrating the early warning based responsive management
D2.3Scientific paper on the economic vulnerability of the bio-economic system of the North Sea